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Experts Offer 2009 Social Media Predictions: What Do You Think?

What's in store for 2009 on the CGM & social media front?  Social media expert and thought-leader Peter Kim assembled of group social media passionistas to tee up key predictions for the coming year.  You can read his full post here. Somehow I managed to sneak onto this esteemed list, which includes David Armano, Rohit Bhargava, Chris Brogan, Todd Defren, Jason Falls, Ann Handley, Joe Jaffe, Charlene Li, Ben McConnell, Scott Monty, Andy Sernotitz, and Greg Verdino.  (All great folks to follow on Twitter, I might add.) A few highlights include:

• "Doors are going to close all over the social web. Why? Because the money didn't come the way people thought it would." - Chris Brogan
• "The tipping point has not only *not* been reached, but could still tilt *away* from Social Media." - Todd Defren
• "Dwindling budgets suddenly make low-cost social media look like the pretty girl at the ball." - Ann Handley
• "We're going to develop a set of better metrics to help guide, direct and validate 'commitment'." - Joseph Jaffe
• "The movement is rooted in a desire to have quality, not quantity, as people cocoon in the face of the economic crisis." - Charlene Li
• "These will be cumulative events and interactions that will build brand loyalty for the companies that pay attention to them." - Scott Monty
• "The recession will force revenue results out of social technologies." - Jeremiah Owyang
• "Companies that focus on earning love will thrive during hard times, and kick ass when good times return." - Andy Sernovitz

As for my specific thoughts, I focused on three key areas.

• Social Media Indigestion:  2009 will see a "correction" in our appetite for friends, followers, and other ostensible perks of social media membership
• Service Gets Personal:  Real intimacy among friends, or in the marketing process, will dial up in importance.  Don't write off the 800 number yet. Emotion powers conversation.
• Back to Fundamentals:  2009 will be the year we resdiscover timeless truths: friendship must be earned, fame is fleeting, excess begets backlash, and it always pays to listen, and credibility is our most enduring marketing asset. (The last point is the foundation of "Satisfied Customers Tell Three Friends, Angry Customers Tell 3000.") 
  

My upcoming list of predictions in Ad Age echoes a few of these themes and expands a bit in other areas.  That article should drop sometime tomorrow.  Here's a embedded presentation of Peter Kim's list.  Thanks for pulling this together, Peter (Kim).

Social Media 2009

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Management Business social media 2009

The Official Social Media Guide to Thanksgiving

Somehow amidst diaper changes, bedtime stories, and wrapping up final client work before the break, I managed to assemble what I’m generously dubbing “The Official Social Media Guide to Thanksgiving.”   Nothing scientific here – just a fun, insight-rich skim across search and conversational venues.  Interestingly, much of what I discovered amounted to “good ol’ fashioned” traditional media content – e.g. a TV clip on YouTube, or a NY Times Thanksgiving review – fortified by comments, ratings, and even the occasional “video response.”  Put another way, the power of “conversation” took ordinary content and made it (in most cases, at least) extraordinary. Will update this list via Twitter.

Wikipedia on Thanksgiving Dinner

How can we not start here?  This is the ultimate “cheat sheet” for every well-meaning parent or Thanksgiving aficionado.  Did you know Alexander Hamilton proclaimed that no "Citizen of the United States should refrain from turkey on Thanksgiving Day"?

Thanksgiving Fun With Numbers

A few fun stats and charts courtesy of the never-quiet blogosphere.  Most of these charts are sourced from Nielsen’s BlogPulse, which tracks 90 million blogs daily.

• Strawberry versus Cranberry
• Pumpkin Pie Versus Apple Pie
• Plymouth Rock versus the Mayflower
• Turkey vs Chicken vs Pork
• Black Friday versus Holiday Deals

Plymouth Rock by FlickR

Who needs to visit Plymouth Rock when thousands of FlickR users are capturing every possible angle, perspective, or wee-small indentation in the famous (albeit somewhat underwhelming) landmark. Saves a wee bit on the travel budget in these tough times!

A Very Twitter Thanksgiving

Of course, if you are bored or lonely or need some form of conversational stimulus, there’s no shortage of Thanksgiving talk on Twitter.  I counted 490 references in a ten-minute period last night.  From the instructional to the mundane to the outright insane. Why do we do this?

Thanksgiving Travel Tips by Blogger Ken Levine

An Emmy winning writer, producer, Levin produces a terrific list of Thanksgiving travel holiday tips.  Practical, spot-on, and humor-laced advice – I’m sure millions can relate.

Turkey Carving and Prep 101

• By the Washington Post This two year old video on YouTube, originally sourced by WashingtonPost.com,  has the highest “view count” and it’s quite good.  The comments affirm its popularity.  
• By Bill Cosby (Impersonating Julia Child): Fun interplay between father and son in the subtle nuances of cutting a cabbage substituting as a Turkey.   Cosby also does a mean impersonation of the late foodie Julie Child.
• Deep Fried Turkey Video Cooking Demo: OK, I’m biased here because Jim Lites, the content contributor, is one of my best friends, but if you are serious about pushing the limits of how you cook your bird, this is worth a review.   Warning: this does take a bit of extra time and prep, and no shortage of oil.
• Organic Turkeys and Green Thanksgiving Prep (at a Price?) – NY Times: For the “aspirationally-green,” this is worth a skim, and the comments are also rich with insight (or economic warning).   Another good example of how the traditional media “fortifies” content with conversation.

Guide to Black Friday Shopper Pain - by PlanetFeedback

Here’s a link to over 13,000 easy-to-organize letters consumers have written to large companies and brands about all dimensions of “shopper pain.”  If you don’t want to be surprised or ticked off leading into Black Friday, skim a few of these.   (PlanetFeedback is a site I started back in 2000)

BBB Offers Consumer Video Shopping Tips (and more) on Facebook

My friends at the BBB recently launched a section on Facebook (and other places) offering consumers and small business a host of "video tips" (aka "Scam Grams') on a host of shopping issues.  Some of this could also come in handy with Black Friday coming around.

Thanksgiving My Way by the Accidental Hedonist (Blog Entry)

This is a well-written, personal reflection on Thanksgiving dinner – representative, one presumes, of millions of personal “dinner table” narratives that will likely spill onto blogs and personal paged in the hours and days following the big meal.  

New York Times Blog Post on Sarah Palin YouTube Thanksgiving Video

I would have linked directly to YouTube but the nearly 300 comments on the NY Times reacting to this blog enty add critical context to this disturbing video.  While I suppose one might challenge the inclusion of this video on the list, the likelyhood that it will creep into dinner-table conversation compels me to “include the obvious.”   (Not for children.)

The Story of Thanksgiving by School House Rock: A quick, oversimplified – yet hum-worthy – three minute history of the Pilgrims coming ashore!  Who can’t get excited about School House rock!  The comments are fun too!

Happy Thanksgiving!

- Pete Blackshaw 

Twitter   http://twitter.com/pblackshaw

BlogWorld Notebook: Re-Engaging With My Inner Blogger

I feel like a bit of an imposter here at BlogWorld.  I talk about blogs every day -- interpret them, offer strategy to companies about how to create and manage them - but in many respects I've lost touch a bit with "individual" blogging.  The reality is that I'm only updating my ConsumerGeneratedMedia site one every week or so (sometimes longer), and many of the issues or tips or "deep thoughts" I ordinarily would toss on my blog have been cannibalized by Twitter, Facebook, Yammer (internal twitter), and the bi-weekly "marketing meets service" column I now write for Advertising Age. I'm also increasingly self-conscious that if I don't stay diligent, and ever attentive, I'll continue getting lapped by far wiser and prescient marketing industry bloggers.  There are many, and they keep me on my toes.

Still, few experiences have so motivated me to think differently about consumer-generated media (or conversations, or social media...) as my own personal blogging (whether this one or my own family blogs like DosBebes or HybridBuzz) and I'm eager to rediscover some of the blog-love while here at the BlogWorld Expo in Las Vegas.  So in addition to participating on a panel dedicated to one of my favorite topics, Defensive Branding, which builds on my of the themes in my book, I hope to put on my consumer cap and soak in some fresh ideas and inspiration.  As I look across the hundreds of individuals intently listening to the keynote address here, delivered by TypePads Anil Dash and Chris Alden, there's an unmistakable level of passion, commitment, and personal pride in the development of the blogosphere. At times it borders on romantic "blogs will solve all" naivette, but that's overshadowed by the unmistakable reality that these are the new media creators and content curators of the marketspace. From traditional media companies who increasingly connect with readers using blog publishing tools to corporations seeking to dial up a greater sense of authenticity and transparency with consumers or customers, everyone, it seems, is borrowing lessons and insights from the folks in this room.  So perhaps this is where insight begins -- perhaps!  We'll see.  I'll keep taking notes. #bwe08

The Facebook "500 Friend" Tipping Point -- Too Much?

I'm flirting with 500 friends on Facebook?  The question is: how much is too much? Is there a "point of diminishing returns" in how many folks I friend?  How do I sustain the conversation among friends in a meaningful way?  What is friendship?  These are the big questions I'm asking as the I reach the 500 mark.

The 11th Hour of the Super Bowl Spikes the Online Conversation

Check out the burst of online conversation on blogs in the final hour of this evening's Super Bowl.  The green represents discussion deemed to be "sports" oriented, and it's clear that most of the spike you see is attributable to the final moments of the Super Bowl.  This is taken from Nielsen's BlogPulse tool, which monitors over 70 million blogs every day. 

10 Year Anniversary of Blogs: Time Flies When One's Overwhelmed!

A few minutes ago my colleague Jon Gibs forwarded me a BBC article noting that today the "word 'weblog' celebrates the 10th anniversary of it being coined on 17 December 1997."  Unbelievable! Has it really been 10 years?  Now, in fairness, lest anyone be deluded into thinking I was on top of this mega-trend back in 1997, let me admit up front that I just didn't have an early clue about any of this until about five years ago.  And the real tipping point, I will admit, came when I impostered my way into an intimidating (yet unmistakably stimulating) A-List blogger event on November 6th 2004 entitled BloggerCon, organized by the likes of Dave Winer and held at Stanford University. Although I already had a blog dedicated to my Hybrid Car experience (HybridBuzz.com), and our pre-Nielsen company Intelliseek had already created a blog portal known as BlogPulse.com (a perpetual thanks to then-employees Natalie Glance, Matt Hurst, and Sundar Kadayam for pushing us hard in that direction), I learned quickly at this "don't talk unless you have credibility, passion and authority" conference that I was barely scratching the surface of what the blogosphere was all about!  I'm still scratching my head, but I do know this: the blogosphere is at the heart of the unprecedented changes taking place in media and communication today.  Yes, there's hype, and I've written about this plenty, but with the blogs has come an unmistakable, largely bottons-up publishing revolution, and we're continuing to feel their impact across all levels of communication: consumer, corporate, media, and beyond.  The blogophere has also laid tracks and runway for CGM2 (consumer-generated multi-media), social networking on platforms like Facebook, and an unmistakable (and long-overdue) corporate "reset" in thinking about relationship marketing, conversation, consumer relations, and of course -- my favorite topic of all - customer service.  And so yes, a "Ten Year Anniversary" certainly worth celebrating.   

Holiday Reading: Top Marketing Blogs

Every month or so Peter Kim publishes a list of top marketing blogs entitled the M20.  Somehow I've managed to consistently make the list (which makes me scratch my head a fair amount) but there are a host of other excellent blogs that cover similar themes and issues.  This week he was a bit more generous in his link-love, and I've basically lifted his expanded list of highly readable blogs written by marketing executives.  See below. More background on Peter's approach here.

• Andy Lark's Blog :: Andy Lark, Dell
• AttentionMax :: Max Kalehoff, Clickable
• Bad idea, indeed :: Philippe Deltenre, Microsoft 
• BeRelevant! :: Tamara Gielen, eBay 
• Biznology :: Mike Moran, IBM 
• Brandopia :: Geert Desager, Microsoft 
• Buzz Marketing For Technology :: Paul Dunay, BearingPoint 
• The Changing Face of Media :: Scott Berg, HP 
• Churbuck.com :: David Churbuck, Lenovo 
• The Client Side :: Michael Seaton, ScotiaBank
• Community Group Therapy :: Sean O'Driscoll, Microsoft 
• Consumer Generated Media :: Pete Blackshaw, Nielsen Buzzmetrics 
• Conversation Agent :: Valeria Maltoni, SunGard Availability Services 
• Cross The Breeze :: Kris Hoet, Microsoft 
• Decker Marketing :: Sam Decker, Bazaarvoice 
• The Digital Mindset Blog :: Eric Kintz, HP 
• El Blog de Enrique Burgos :: Enrique Burgos, SEUR
• Emerson Process Experts :: Jim Cahill, Emerson Process Management 
• ExperienceCurve :: Karl Long, Nokia 
• Flooring The Consumer  :: CB Whittemore, Wear-Dated Carpet Fiber 
• Gauravonomics :: Gaurav Mishra, Tata Motors
• The HP LaserJet Blog :: Vince Ferraro, HP 
• HP's Small & Medium Business Community Blog :: Anneliese Olson, HP 
• The Innovative Marketer :: Steve Gershik, Eloqua 
• The Kristasphere :: Krista Summit, Lenovo 
• Listen Up! :: John Porcaro, Microsoft 
• The Lonely Marketer :: Patrick Schaber, Transition Networks 
• Marketing Monster :: Michael Morton, Lampo Group 
• Marketing Nirvana :: Mario Sundar, LinkedIn 
• Masiguy :: Tim Jackson, Masi Bicycles 
• MEGO :: Michelle Kostya, Cuisinart and Waring Pro
• Novell:  John Dragoon's Blog :: John Dragoon, Novell 
• Randy's Journal :: Randy Tinseth, Boeing 
• Sony Electronics Blog :: Rick Clancy, Sony Electronics 
• Strategic Public Relations :: Kevin Dugan, FRCH Design 
• Suzanne's Blog :: Suzanne Fanning, Fiskars
• Todd And - The Power To Connect :: Todd Andrlik, Leopardo Construction 
• "Turbo" Todd Watson :: Todd Watson, IBM 
• Unleashed on marketing blog :: Gary Bembridge, Johnson & Johnson 

 

2007 Buzz Leaderboard: Wikipedia, Facebook, iPhone, Paris, Barry, and Lindsay (A Short List!)

Sometimes you just need let the numbers tell the story.  I'm beginning to pull together various notes and conclusions from 2007, and in the process ran a series of trend charts on BlogPulse.com.  This tool charts out the number of references against a given term or phrase among total new blog postings.  Nielsen's BlogPulse tracks about 66 million blogs, and roughly 700,000 new posts are indexed every day.  Here's a shortlist of buzzmakers for the year. 

Wikipedia Still Trumps the Encyclopedia: The meteoric rise of Wikipedia.com continues to fascinate me (and many others, obviously).  This form of "group CGM" continues to nurture trust and credibility across the web, and the number of blog links into Wikipedia punctuate that point.  Who would have imagined, only a few years ago, that quirky sounding utility like Wikipedia would draw over five-times as many references online as the ostensibly durable term encyclopedia? Go figure!

Facebook Takes a Leap, YouTube Keeps Marching:  As conversation goes, Facebook has jumped well ahead of peer social networking sites, especially Linked-In, and I suspect much of this stems from both the open-sourcing of application development on the platform and the hardly veiled discovery, if not embrace, by the marketing community.

 

Of course, these numbers may under-represent the true level of discussion about Facebook because most Facebook conversation is taking place on, well, Facebook, not just blogs.  My own Facebook group , Consumer Generated Media, quickly grew a membership base that now exceeds email subscribers to this blog. YouTube, meanwhile, continues to burrow itself even deeper into the conversational vibes, aided by user growth, many tipping points of critical mass, increasing diversified content, and aggressive marketing by just about anyone who puts up a video, including marketers.

Iphone Creates a Buzz Halo: But the Real Halo Also Impressive:  Unless there's a big surprise between now and December, it will be difficult to dethrone the iPhone as 2007's biggest buzz story.  The buzz was strong, sustained, and diversified, which in turn kept the popular device always conversational. Meanwhile, "Halo 3," designed by Bungie Studios for Microsoft's X-Box, also has been a big CGM winner this year, peaking shortly around its release on September 25. Sample the conversation.

As Buzz Goes, We'll Always Have Paris (Hilton, not France): Not sure if this is the best news for the French tourism bureau but Paris Hilton kept pace with overall buzz that explicitly referenced Paris, France, and even far exceeded that during the ubiquitous celebrity's more controversial moments.  It's hard to say whether any of this will die anytime soon.  You can peruse her HeyNielsen conversation to understand some of the root drivers behind her often-polarizing discussion.  Her David Letterman appearance probably takes the cake in terms of elevating her buzz levels above the competition out there.

Steroids Buzz Bonds to Barry Bonds:  Guilty or innocent, Barry Bonds just couldn't dodge the vast majority of conversation on blogs related to steroids. Where buzz about steroids spiked, conversation about Barry Bonds was even higher.  The only exception was around late June, when steroid related conversation spiked related to the death of professional wrestler Chris Benoit.

Rehab Talk Can't Quit With Lindsay Lohan: Similarly, where discussion related to "rehab" was concerned, it was mostly inseparable from the trials of Lindsay Lohan.  Then again, the discussion over rehabilitation programs was hardly monolithic. A much broader discussion ensued across blogs of every variety about whether rehab programs actually work.  Many bloggers shared first hand experiences.

 

Son of Kryptonite: Unlocking the iPhone

I couldn't ignore this "Unlocking the iPhone" video because it spikes to the top of the blog charts with unusual fury. Classic CGM!

The Iterative, Blended Influential Scorecard: Or Lack Thereof?

Both Peter Kim and Steve Rubel are up to an interesting exercise.  Both, in their own ways, are introducing new frameworks for measuring influence.  Peter is tacking the matter from the lens of key marketing blogs, and as you can see he's already updated his list based on a combination of feedback and new criteria.  Steve Rubel, similarly, is tackling a set of important new timely questions around "What is Influence," especially as non-blog power-pockets like Facebook start to take deeper root.  See Crowdsourcing a New System for Measuring Influence.  Also see Edelman's latest Social Media index posted by Edelman CEO and "Sixty Second View" blogger David Brain.  I frankly think this a critical, and fascinating, exercise for all marketers and business professionals to think through, as so many critical tactical and strategic decisions in this "age of consumer control" are grounded in how we define the so-called "influencer."  Again, see Peter Kim's latest list below.  He must have made a terrible mistake in keeping me on the list.  :-)

1. Listen Up! :: John Porcaro, Group Manager - Online Communications, Microsoft.
2. ExperienceCurve :: Karl Long, Web/Social Media Integration Manager, Nokia.
3. Strategic Public Relations :: Kevin Dugan, Director of Marketing Communications, FRCH Design.
4. Todd And - The Power To Connect :: Todd Andrlik, Director of Marketing and PR, Leopardo Construction.
5. Marketing Nirvana :: Mario Sundar, Community Evangelist, LinkedIn.
6. Decker Marketing ::  Sam Decker, VP Marketing, Bazaarvoice.
7. Flooring The Consumer  ::  Authored by CB Whittemore, Director of In-Store Innovation, Wear-Dated Carpet Fiber.
8. The Marketing Excellence Blog :: Eric Kintz, VP Marketing, Digital Photography & Entertainment, Hewlett-Packard.
9. cgm :: Pete Blackshaw, CMO, Nielsen Buzzmetrics.
10. Bernaisesource ::  Dan Greenfield, VP Corporate Communications, Earthlink.
11. Cross The Breeze ::  Kris Hoet, Marketing Communications Manager, Microsoft.
12. Churbuck.com ::  David Churbuck, VP Global Web Marketing, Lenovo.
13. Masiguy ::  Tim Jackson, Brand Manager, Masi Bicycles.
14. AttentionMax ::  Max Kalehoff, VP Marketing, Nielsen Buzzmetrics.
15. Emerson Process Experts ::   Jim Cahill, Marketing Communications Manager, Emerson Process Management.
16. BeRelevant! :: Tamara Gielen, Email Marketing Manager - Belgium, eBay.
17. Brandopia ::  Geert Desager, Trade Marketing Manager, Microsoft.
18. Buzz Marketing For Technology ::  Paul Dunay, Director of Global Field & Interactive Marketing, BearingPoint.
19. Community Group Therapy :: Sean O'Driscoll, General Manager of Community Support and MVP, Microsoft.
20. The Client Side :: Michael Seaton, Director - Digital Marketing, Scotiabank.
21. "Turbo" Todd Watson :: Todd Watson, IBM software group - web marketing, IBM.
22. John Dragoon's Blog :: John Dragoon, CMO, Novell.
23. The HP LaserJet Blog ::  Vince Ferraro, VP of Worldwide Marketing - LaserJet BU, HP.
24. The Changing Face of Media :: Scott Berg, Worldwide Media Director, HP.
25. Marketing Monster ::  Morton, Marketing Specialist, Lampo Group.
26. Bad idea, indeed :: Philippe Deltenre, Business Development & Strategy Manager, Microsoft.
27. The Innovative Marketer :: Steve Gershik, Director of Marketing Innovation, Eloqua.
28. Sony Electronics Blog :: Rick Clancy, Head of US Corporate Communications, Sony.
29. John Heald's Blog :: John Heald, Cruise Director, Carnival.
30. The Kristasphere :: Krista Summit, Web Marketing Strategist, Lenovo.
31. Randy's Journal :: Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing, Boeing.